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Market analysis: frequent rate hikes in the United States, SSD, memory or price rise
Big event: the third u. S. raise fund interest rate (interest rate increase)
In December 2nd, the United States passed the tax reform bill of Trump. "Interest increase + shrink Table + tax reduction" began to be carried out in the United States.
11 days later, in December 13th, the Federal Reserve issued a statement that raised the federal fund rate by 25 basis points to the 1.25%-1.5% interval. This is the third time the Fed raises interest rates this year, and has a great increase in interest rates. It is expected to raise interest rates 3 times in the United States in 2018.
With an increase in interest rates, we can simply understand that the US has raised the interest rate for bank lending. That is to say, the US lending threshold will be higher in the future, the interest rate will be higher, the dollar will return to the US bank, the dollar will be more and more valuable and so on.
The interest rate adjustment of the US dollar as an international currency can be described as a whole body.
Before 2017, the US interest rate increased the flow of global capital and talents to the US, and the global prices rose. Some countries even had an economic crisis.
As a result, the three increase in interest rates in the United States this year has once again touched the nerves of the world.
Analysis: the impact of American interest rate increase on China's computer storage market
So what is the impact of frequent u. S. interest rates on the Chinese computer storage market?
Let's make a simple analysis.
1., the US increases interest rates, the US dollar shrinks, and even the world's funds rush into the US. But the US can't get in, which will lead to the global DRAM and NAND production scale and capacity being affected.
Global NAND, DRAM were almost magnesium, Samsung, Toshiba, Hynix 4 international chip manufacturers monopoly. The 4 affected, inevitably led to the shortage of NAND, DRAM, the price rises again.
2. China's dependence on foreign NAND and DRAM chips is very high. It is the largest importer of NAND and DRAM in the world.
The U.S. increase in interest rates, the contraction of the dollar and the appreciation of the dollar will make us need more money to buy NAND and DRAM.
3. although in recent years, domestic computer storage brands have come to the fore. But China's computer storage market, the United States, Korea, Japan's brand share is still quite high.
In 2017, nearly 34% of the domestic SSD market was occupied by American brands, 42% of which were occupied by Japanese and Korean brands, and the domestic SSD brand accounted for only 24% of the market share. And this is the best result of the domestic SSD over the years in the market share.
In the market share of the memory, the domestic market is slightly better, the market share has reached about 30%, if added with G.skill, 44%. However, most of the markets are still occupied by the United States and Japan.
Domestic computer storage products market foreign brands occupy the mainstream market, which is also the direct reason for the crazy price increase of SSD and memory bars in recent years.
In recent years, Chinese computer storage products market jittery, state of extreme nervousness. The US interest rate increases may allow foreign wafers, chips, and computer storage manufacturers to find an excuse to reap China's consumer market again.
The 4. increase in U.S. interest rates have been playing stud, want to harvest the world economy. Does China want to follow it? If China also raises interest rates. It may be not conducive to the development of China's emerging computer storage industry and semiconductor industry. In addition, if China's interest rate increases, it may cause a strong price fluctuation.
Conclusion: the US interest rate increase is not a bad thing for the Chinese computer storage industry
The United States has repeatedly raised its fund interest rate (interest rate hikes), which is likely to lead to a sustained increase in the price of the domestic, even global memory and SSD. For our consumers, this is what we don't want to see.
But the SSD, the hot memory market, but it is conducive to the development of our domestic computer storage industry. The development of domestic computer storage industry or a big outbreak in the future.
The rising price of SSD and memory bar will lead to the shrinking of SSD and memory market of foreign brands, and more and more consumers will eventually choose the more expensive domestic SSD and memory chips. The brand of domestic SSD and memory bar has received more recognition, stimulated by the market and will grow rapidly, so as to recover more land lost in the market of domestic computer storage products, and to participate in the competition with foreign brands.
Not only is the market of computer storage products so hot, it will also stimulate domestic wafer, chip manufacturing industry, and even promote the development of China's semiconductor industry.
And so our country wafer, chip manufacturing rise, and so on our computer storage product brand rise. Who think prices are not good, why prices are not good, "listen to me" in my site, computer storage products price this thing we decide yourself, no longer being at the mercy of the.
Maybe the price of SSD and memory will be soaring in the future. The domestic computer digital consumer market and Starving people fill the land., hot water. But it will never last for a long time. This is pain, and it is an opportunity. Seize the opportunity, after a short pain is happiness.